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Crown Green Handicap

Paul Ferris

Team: Lady MargaretsDivision: Division 2Last updated: 10/24/2026

Rating

837

Current Handicap

15
Honours
Season:

13

Matches Played

3

Wins

10

Losses

23%

Win Rate

5.3

Avg Win Margin

7.6

Avg Loss Margin

2-5

Home Record

1-5

Away Record

10%

Handicap Confidence

Low Confidence
13 / 41 matches for full confidence· Last recorded match: 6/18/2024

Only 13 of the 41 matches needed for full confidence in the 2024, 2025, 2026 window. The rating is pulled toward the league average, so the handicap may shift noticeably as more results arrive.

Milestones

Career

No career milestones yet — keep bowling!

Next goal: Decade Player3/10
✦SEASON HIGHLIGHTS

No season milestones recorded yet.

Handicap Trend

All Time · 13 matches

+15 Rising
Win on the night Loss on the nightLower handicap = stronger player

The line re-checks the handicap after every match — from results, winning and losing margins, the strength of who was played, and home or away. Each dot is the number that applied going into the next game.

19 Apr10 May24 May30 Aug13 Jun18 Jul18 Jun-14916

Gives 15 more chalks than at the start of this period.

Started0
Lowest0
Current15
Win Percentage(40%)
23%
score-0.54→contribution-0.22
Avg Winning Margin(25%)
5.3
score-0.44→contribution-0.11
Avg Losing Margin(15%)
7.6
score+0.07→contribution+0.01
Recent Form (last 20)(10%)
23%
score-0.54→contribution-0.05
Opponent Strength(10%)
830
score-0.75→contribution-0.08
Weighted Score-0.446
Sample Size Confidence
10%(13/41 matches)
Rating866 → shrunk 987→ adjusted 837
Handicap
15

Formula: Rating = 1000 + (weighted score × 300). Each factor is normalized to −1…+1, multiplied by its weight, then summed. Window: factors are computed from the Handicap Calculation Years only (2024, 2025, 2026), excluding walkovers — the same window the official recalculation uses. Bayesian shrinkage: the raw rating is pulled toward 1000 by confidence (window matches ÷ 41, an adaptive threshold set by the last recalculation). Offsets: division and B/C/D team offsets are then applied, weighted by where each window match was played. Recency blend: the calculation years are re-weighted at up to 40% by match volume. Players with a long career but fewer than 5 window matches fall back to their full career record. Rating maps to handicap 0–15 (lower = stronger) via the league's spread multiplier.

League

3W10L13 matches·23.1% win rate
ClubSeasonsDivision(s)PWLWin %
Lady Margarets2022–2024Division 21331023.1%
DateOpponentH/AScoreResultMarginCompetitionDivision
6/18/2024Peter O'ConnorA19-21LOSS-2LeagueDivision 2
8/15/2023Bob AppletonH18-21LOSS-3LeagueDivision 2
7/18/2023John WhiteH21-20WIN+1LeagueDivision 2
6/20/2023Darren EllisA12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision 2
6/13/2023Harry OrrettH18-21LOSS-3LeagueDivision 2
9/6/2022R GerrardH19-21LOSS-2LeagueDivision 2
8/30/2022Ian MarshA10-21LOSS-11LeagueDivision 2
8/9/2022Ron PickavanceH13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision 2
5/24/2022Graham ForrestH1-21LOSS-20LeagueDivision 2
5/17/2022Anthony PeetA13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision 2
5/10/2022Ken HalsallA21-16WIN+5LeagueDivision 2
4/26/2022Ward HattonA11-21LOSS-10LeagueDivision 2
4/19/2022Ian PalmerH21-11WIN+10LeagueDivision 2

Current Streak

2losses

In a slump

Longest Win Run

1

Career best winning streak

Longest Loss Run

7

Career worst losing streak

Last 520% win rate
LLWLL
Last 1010% win rate— steady
LLWLLLLLLL
OpponentWLTotalWin %Last Met
Peter O'Connor0110%6/18/2024
Bob Appleton0110%8/15/2023
John White101100%7/18/2023
Darren Ellis0110%6/20/2023
Harry Orrett0110%6/13/2023
R Gerrard0110%9/6/2022
Ian Marsh0110%8/30/2022
Ron Pickavance0110%8/9/2022
Graham Forrest0110%5/24/2022
Anthony Peet0110%5/17/2022
Biggest Win
Ian Palmer (+10)4/19/2022
Heaviest Defeat
Graham Forrest (-20)5/24/2022
Form Arc (1st half → 2nd half)
33% → 14%declining
Avg Opponent Rating Faced
83013 known · 0 unknown
vs Weak Opponents (rating < 1000)
3-1023% win rate
Division 223.1%
3W·10L·13 played

Debut

Apr 19, 2022

Latest

Jun 18, 2024

Seasons Active

3 (2.2 yr span)

Matches / Season

4.3 (13 total)

Seasons

202220232024