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Crown Green Handicap

Keith Bailey

Team: Pensby DDivision: Division CLast updated: 10/24/2026

Rating

628

Current Handicap

13
Honours
Season:

108

Matches Played

26

Wins

82

Losses

24%

Win Rate

6.7

Avg Win Margin

9.0

Avg Loss Margin

14-41

Home Record

12-41

Away Record

100%

Handicap Confidence

Very Reliable
39 / 33 matches for full confidence· Last recorded match: 8/13/2026

A large recent sample: 39 matches in the 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 window, comfortably past the 33-match benchmark for full confidence. The handicap is stable and only shifts as form changes.

Milestones

Career

No career milestones yet — keep bowling!

Next goal: Decade Player9/10
✦SEASON HIGHLIGHTS

No season milestones recorded yet.

Handicap Trend

All Time · 108 matches

+13 Rising
Win on the night Loss on the nightLower handicap = stronger player

The line re-checks the handicap after every match — from results, winning and losing margins, the strength of who was played, and home or away. Each dot is the number that applied going into the next game.

11 May7 Jun10 May15 May7 Aug29 Jul9 Jul28 Jul13 Aug-14916

Gives 13 more chalks than at the start of this period.

Started0
Lowest0
Current13
Win Percentage(35%)
38%
score-0.23→contribution-0.08
Avg Winning Margin(23%)
7.1
score-0.16→contribution-0.04
Avg Losing Margin(15%)
8.3
score-0.04→contribution-0.01
Recent Form (last 20)(10%)
25%
score-0.50→contribution-0.05
Opponent Strength(15%)
892
score-0.36→contribution-0.05
Weighted Score-0.231
Sample Size Confidence
100%(39/33 matches)
Rating908 → shrunk 908→ adjusted 641
Recent 5-Season Rating (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026)608
Recency Blend40% (39 recent matches)
Final Rating628
Handicap
13

Formula: Rating = 1000 + (weighted score × 400). Each factor is normalized to −1…+1, multiplied by its weight, then summed. Window: factors are computed from the Handicap Calculation Years only (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026), excluding walkovers — the same window the official recalculation uses. Bayesian shrinkage: the raw rating is pulled toward 1000 by confidence (window matches ÷ 33, an adaptive threshold set by the last recalculation). Offsets: division and B/C/D team offsets are then applied, weighted by where each window match was played. Recency blend: the calculation years are re-weighted at up to 40% by match volume. Players with a long career but fewer than 5 window matches fall back to their full career record. Rating maps to handicap 0–15 (lower = stronger) via the league's spread multiplier.

League

26W82L108 matches·24.1% win rate
ClubSeasonsDivision(s)PWLWin %
Pensby C2016–2024Division C71175423.9%
Pensby D2025–2026Division C2151623.8%
Pensby B2017–2026Division B, Division C1641225%
DateOpponentH/AScoreResultMarginCompetitionDivision
8/13/2026Simon DowningH18-21LOSS-3LeagueDivision C
8/10/2026Colin WolfarthA21-10WIN+11LeagueDivision C
7/22/2026Max MotleyA19-21LOSS-2LeagueDivision C
7/15/2026Jane LloydA16-21LOSS-5LeagueDivision B
7/14/2026Mark PeersA10-21LOSS-11LeagueDivision C
7/8/2026June DawsonH21-7WIN+14LeagueDivision C
7/1/2026Neil LangleyH20-21LOSS-1LeagueDivision C
6/3/2026Paul BlackwellH10-21LOSS-11LeagueDivision C
5/26/2026John BonifaceA7-21LOSS-14LeagueDivision C
5/19/2026Graham AmerH12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision C
5/12/2026Andy SewellA8-21LOSS-13LeagueDivision C
8/27/2025vs Oxton Cons BH21-16WIN+5LeagueDivision C
8/13/2025John MortonA17-21LOSS-4LeagueDivision C
8/7/2025John RoachH10-21LOSS-11LeagueDivision C
7/29/2025Andy PritchardA14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision C
7/28/2025vs Bromborough Social ClubH21-14WIN+7LeagueDivision C
7/15/2025Rod WhiteA16-21LOSS-5LeagueDivision C
7/9/2025Paula JenningsH20-21LOSS-1LeagueDivision C
7/3/2025Pat MclaughlinA21-16WIN+5LeagueDivision C
7/2/2025vs Pensby CH10-21LOSS-11LeagueDivision C
6/17/2025John RoachA14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision C
5/15/2025Ian ProctorA9-21LOSS-12LeagueDivision C
8/14/2024vs Bromborough Social ClubA21-17WIN+4LeagueDivision C
8/8/2024Andrew DobsonA21-18WIN+3LeagueDivision C
8/7/2024vs Oxton Cons BH21-18WIN+3LeagueDivision C
7/24/2024vs Bromborough Pool BH21-17WIN+4LeagueDivision C
7/18/2024Jack BeechamA9-21LOSS-12LeagueDivision C
7/9/2024George SaxtonA9-21LOSS-12LeagueDivision C
7/3/2024vs Albany BH21-14WIN+7LeagueDivision C
7/2/2024Fred DohertyA21-11WIN+10LeagueDivision C
6/26/2024vs Sea DogH21-18WIN+3LeagueDivision C
8/10/2023Neal SleemanA7-21LOSS-14LeagueDivision B
8/3/2023Paul BlackwellH21-17WIN+4LeagueDivision B
8/1/2023Darren MckennyH5-21LOSS-16LeagueDivision C
7/11/2023June BuckleyH21-8WIN+13LeagueDivision C
7/6/2023Frances MarmionA15-21LOSS-6LeagueDivision C
7/4/2023Thomas PughA21-8WIN+13LeagueDivision C
6/21/2023vs Oxton Cons CH12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision C
5/25/2023Mal SmithA19-21LOSS-2LeagueDivision C
7/29/2021Gordon DitchfieldH8-21LOSS-13LeagueDivision C
7/21/2021vs Pt Sunlight Vill & Wks BH19-21LOSS-2LeagueDivision C
7/8/2021Alan HughesH9-21LOSS-12LeagueDivision C
7/1/2021Paul HarrisA5-21LOSS-16LeagueDivision C
6/23/2021vs Pensby CA21-16WIN+5LeagueDivision C
6/22/2021Chris WentworthA12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision C
6/17/2021Dot JonesH16-21LOSS-5LeagueDivision C
6/15/2021Tony SnutchA21-3WIN+18LeagueDivision C
5/26/2021vs Sea DogH13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision C
5/25/2021George JellicoeA10-21LOSS-11LeagueDivision C
5/19/2021vs Sea DogH6-21LOSS-15LeagueDivision C
8/14/2019vs Heswall Rbl BH6-21LOSS-15LeagueDivision C
8/8/2019Paul CartyA7-21LOSS-14LeagueDivision C
8/7/2019vs Hoylake Central & MelroseA13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision C
8/1/2019Phil SpencerA15-21LOSS-6LeagueDivision C
7/30/2019Paul ChapmanA14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision C
7/23/2019Ken RobertsA12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision C
7/2/2019Dave ChapmanA4-21LOSS-17LeagueDivision B
6/27/2019Brenda ThompsonA16-21LOSS-5LeagueDivision C
6/19/2019vs Pt Sunlight Vill & Wks BH9-21LOSS-12LeagueDivision C
6/13/2019Malcolm GilfoyleH16-21LOSS-5LeagueDivision B
6/12/2019vs Bebington ParkH12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision C
6/6/2019George ArgyleH19-21LOSS-2LeagueDivision B
6/5/2019vs Arno TixallA21-17WIN+4LeagueDivision B
6/5/2019vs Bromborough Pool BH18-21LOSS-3LeagueDivision C
5/22/2019vs Thingwall BH14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision C
5/15/2019vs Bromborough Recs BH9-21LOSS-12LeagueDivision C
5/2/2019Stephen BibbyH14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision B
8/15/2018vs Bebington ParkH8-21LOSS-13LeagueDivision C
8/8/2018vs Pt Sunlight Vill & Wks BH21-16WIN+5LeagueDivision C
7/26/2018Steve EdwardsA12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision C
7/25/2018vs Oxton Cons CH7-21LOSS-14LeagueDivision C
7/24/2018Joe RiceA14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision C
7/17/2018Andy PritchardH14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision C
7/12/2018Pat FryerA21-20WIN+1LeagueDivision C
7/3/2018vs Bebington ParkA13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision C
6/21/2018Fred DohertyA12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision C
6/6/2018vs Oxton Cons CA5-21LOSS-16LeagueDivision C
5/23/2018vs Sea DogH7-21LOSS-14LeagueDivision C
5/16/2018vs Thingwall BH21-18WIN+3LeagueDivision C
5/10/2018Andy PritchardA17-21LOSS-4LeagueDivision C
8/22/2017Dave HarrisonH19-21LOSS-2LeagueDivision C
8/16/2017vs NestonH18-21LOSS-3LeagueDivision C
8/10/2017Clifford ParnellA15-21LOSS-6LeagueDivision C
8/2/2017vs Sea DogH20-21LOSS-1LeagueDivision C
8/1/2017Gordon DitchfieldA5-21LOSS-16LeagueDivision C
7/27/2017Stephen BallA14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision C
7/26/2017vs Albany BH9-21LOSS-12LeagueDivision C
7/20/2017Alan DunbarA10-21LOSS-11LeagueDivision C
7/6/2017Peter SteeleA6-21LOSS-15LeagueDivision C
7/5/2017vs Bromborough Recs BH14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision C
6/29/2017Philip SweeneyA17-21LOSS-4LeagueDivision C
6/21/2017vs Thingwall BH21-10WIN+11LeagueDivision C
6/15/2017David CruickshankA13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision C
6/7/2017vs Bebington ParkH5-21LOSS-16LeagueDivision C
5/25/2017Peter MillerA2-21LOSS-19LeagueDivision B
5/25/2017Steve RowlandA7-21LOSS-14LeagueDivision C
5/17/2017vs Pt Sunlight Vill & Wks BH16-21LOSS-5LeagueDivision C
5/10/2017vs Oxton Cons CH19-21LOSS-2LeagueDivision C
8/10/2016vs Pt Sunlight Vill & Wks BH21-17WIN+4LeagueDivision C
7/27/2016John MountfordH4-21LOSS-17LeagueDivision C
7/6/2016Tom RobertsH12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision C
7/5/2016Peter LoveA21-19WIN+2LeagueDivision C
6/29/2016vs Hoylake CentralH7-21LOSS-14LeagueDivision C
6/2/2016Stephen BurkeA21-15WIN+6LeagueDivision C
5/31/2016Lesley QuinnA13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision C
5/18/2016vs Oxton Cons CH21-11WIN+10LeagueDivision C
5/11/2016vs Albany BH12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision C
4/27/2016vs Sea DogH17-21LOSS-4LeagueDivision C
Geoff Clare Trophy10 games · 2W
20262 rounds
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Quarters RoundKarl RobinsonPensby C14-21LOSSWON
Semi Final RoundRoss BoardmanLever Club C13-21LOSSLOST
20252 rounds
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Quarters RoundSue LawsonAlbany B6-21LOSSWON
Semi Final RoundDeborah SilcockBromborough Pool B21-8WINLOST
20211 round
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Quarters RoundAndrew ParnellThingwall B21-20WINLOST
20191 round
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Quarters RoundJohn MountfordKendal6-21LOSSWON
20182 rounds
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Quarters RoundPhilip CurrieBebington Park3-21LOSSWON
Semi Final RoundBill DowOxton Cons C11-21LOSSLOST
20171 round
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Quarters RoundAndy PritchardBromborough Recs B5-21LOSSLOST
20161 round
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Round of 16 RoundAlan MathewsOxton Cons C11-21LOSSLOST
George ONeill Trophy9 games · 4W
20261 round
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Preliminary RoundBrian Chellam / Stephen WheeldonThingwall B0-15LOSSLOST
20232 rounds
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Preliminary RoundAlan Mathews / George ParnellOxton Cons C15-6WINWON
Round of 16 RoundAnthony Pattin / Mike PattinLedsham Royal1-15LOSSLOST
20222 rounds
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Preliminary RoundPeter Lucas / Andrew ParnellThingwall B15-13WINLOST
Round of 16 RoundMark Smith / Dave RimmerOxton Cons9-15LOSSLOST
20191 round
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Round of 32 RoundWalk Over / Walk OverNeston15-0WINWON
20181 round
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Round of 32 RoundColin Portis / Terry MilnerLever Club10-15LOSSLOST
20172 rounds
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Round of 16 RoundDavid Cruickshank / Brian WilliamsSea Dog15-7WINWON
Quarters RoundAndy Pritchard / Eddie CharltonBromborough Recs B11-15LOSSWON

Current Streak

1losses

In a slump

Longest Win Run

4

Career best winning streak

Longest Loss Run

15

Career worst losing streak

Last 520% win rate
LWLLL
Last 1020% win rate— steady
LWLLLWLLLL
OpponentWLTotalWin %Last Met
Sea Dog15616.7%6/26/2024
Oxton Cons C14520%6/21/2023
Pt Sunlight Vill & Wks B23540%7/21/2021
Bebington Park0440%6/12/2019
Andy Pritchard0330%7/29/2025
Albany B12333.3%7/3/2024
Thingwall B21366.7%5/22/2019
Paul Blackwell11250%6/3/2026
Oxton Cons B202100%8/27/2025
John Roach0220%8/7/2025
Biggest Win
Tony Snutch (+18)6/15/2021
Heaviest Defeat
Peter Miller (-19)5/25/2017
Nemesis
Sea Dog1-5 H2H
Best Season
201640% · 10 matches
Worst Season
20176% · 18 matches
Form Arc (1st half → 2nd half)
17% → 31%improving
Avg Opponent Rating Faced
86861 known · 47 unknown
vs Strong Opponents (rating ≥ 1000)
1-811% win rate
vs Weak Opponents (rating < 1000)
10-4219% win rate

By Division

Division C24-75 (24%)
Division B2-7 (22%)
Division B22.2%
2W·7L·9 played
Division C24.2%
24W·75L·99 played

Debut

Apr 27, 2016

Latest

Aug 13, 2026

Seasons Active

9 (10.3 yr span)

Matches / Season

12.0 (108 total)

Seasons

201620172018201920212023202420252026