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Crown Green Handicap

Ian Roberts

Team: Pensby DDivision: Division CLast updated: 10/24/2026

Rating

472

Current Handicap

NQ

Needs 3 more match(es)

Honours
Season:

7

Matches Played

1

Wins

6

Losses

14%

Win Rate

3.0

Avg Win Margin

9.5

Avg Loss Margin

1-2

Home Record

0-4

Away Record

80%

Handicap Confidence

Provisional
7 / 33 matches for full confidence· Last recorded match: 8/11/2026

The handicap is built on a small recent sample (7 matches so far). It is deliberately conservative and will move as more results come in.

Milestones

Career

No career milestones yet — keep bowling!

Next goal: Decade Player1/10
✦SEASON HIGHLIGHTS

No season milestones recorded yet.

Handicap Trend

All Time · 7 matches

+15 Rising
Win on the night Loss on the nightLower handicap = stronger player

The line re-checks the handicap after every match — from results, winning and losing margins, the strength of who was played, and home or away. Each dot is the number that applied going into the next game.

12 May19 May21 May27 May9 Jun10 Jun11 Aug-14916

Gives 15 more chalks than at the start of this period.

Started0
Lowest0
Current15
Win Percentage(35%)
14%
score-0.71→contribution-0.25
Avg Winning Margin(23%)
3.0
score-0.83→contribution-0.19
Avg Losing Margin(15%)
9.5
score-0.25→contribution-0.04
Recent Form (last 20)(10%)
14%
score-0.71→contribution-0.07
Opponent Strength(15%)
787
score-0.99→contribution-0.15
Weighted Score-0.714
Sample Size Confidence
80%(7/33 matches)
Rating715 → shrunk 772→ adjusted 472
Recent 5-Season Rating (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026)472
Recency Blend9% (7 recent matches)
Final Rating472
Handicap
NQ

Formula: Rating = 1000 + (weighted score × 400). Each factor is normalized to −1…+1, multiplied by its weight, then summed. Window: factors are computed from the Handicap Calculation Years only (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026), excluding walkovers — the same window the official recalculation uses. Bayesian shrinkage: the raw rating is pulled toward 1000 by confidence (window matches ÷ 33, an adaptive threshold set by the last recalculation). Offsets: division and B/C/D team offsets are then applied, weighted by where each window match was played. Recency blend: the calculation years are re-weighted at up to 40% by match volume. Players with a long career but fewer than 5 window matches fall back to their full career record. Rating maps to handicap 0–15 (lower = stronger) via the league's spread multiplier.

League

1W6L7 matches·14.3% win rate
ClubSeasonsDivision(s)PWLWin %
Pensby D2026Division C71614.3%
DateOpponentH/AScoreResultMarginCompetitionDivision
8/11/2026John MurrayA13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision C
6/10/2026Sue LawsonH12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision C
6/9/2026Paul HellerA9-21LOSS-12LeagueDivision C
5/27/2026Michelle Caffin ***H15-21LOSS-6LeagueDivision C
5/21/2026David CotterellA6-21LOSS-15LeagueDivision C
5/19/2026Charlie GibbH21-18WIN+3LeagueDivision C
5/12/2026Pat CrossA14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision C

Current Streak

5losses

In a slump

Longest Win Run

1

Career best winning streak

Longest Loss Run

5

Career worst losing streak

Last 50% win rate
LLLLL
Last 1014% win rate↓ declining
LLLLLWL
OpponentWLTotalWin %Last Met
John Murray0110%8/11/2026
Sue Lawson0110%6/10/2026
Paul Heller0110%6/9/2026
Michelle Caffin ***0110%5/27/2026
David Cotterell0110%5/21/2026
Charlie Gibb101100%5/19/2026
Pat Cross0110%5/12/2026
Biggest Win
Charlie Gibb (+3)5/19/2026
Heaviest Defeat
David Cotterell (-15)5/21/2026
Form Arc (1st half → 2nd half)
33% → 0%declining
Avg Opponent Rating Faced
7526 known · 1 unknown
vs Weak Opponents (rating < 1000)
1-517% win rate
Division C14.3%
1W·6L·7 played

Debut

May 12, 2026

Latest

Aug 11, 2026

Seasons Active

1 (3 mo span)

Matches / Season

7.0 (7 total)

Seasons

2026