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Crown Green Handicap

Dave Holden

Team: Carr Mill BDivision: Division 2Last updated: 10/24/2026

Rating

877

Current Handicap

13
Honours
Season:

12

Matches Played

4

Wins

8

Losses

33%

Win Rate

10.3

Avg Win Margin

12.0

Avg Loss Margin

4-5

Home Record

0-3

Away Record

9%

Handicap Confidence

Low Confidence
12 / 41 matches for full confidence· Last recorded match: 7/4/2023

Only 12 of the 41 matches needed for full confidence in the 2024, 2025, 2026 window. The rating is pulled toward the league average, so the handicap may shift noticeably as more results arrive.

Milestones

Career

No career milestones yet — keep bowling!

Next goal: Decade Player2/10
✦SEASON HIGHLIGHTS

No season milestones recorded yet.

Handicap Trend

All Time · 12 matches

+13 Rising
Win on the night Loss on the nightLower handicap = stronger player

The line re-checks the handicap after every match — from results, winning and losing margins, the strength of who was played, and home or away. Each dot is the number that applied going into the next game.

28 Jun2 Aug16 Aug9 May6 Jun4 Jul-14916

Gives 13 more chalks than at the start of this period.

Started0
Lowest0
Current13
Win Percentage(40%)
33%
score-0.33→contribution-0.13
Avg Winning Margin(25%)
10.3
score+0.38→contribution+0.09
Avg Losing Margin(15%)
12.0
score-0.67→contribution-0.10
Recent Form (last 20)(10%)
33%
score-0.33→contribution-0.03
Opponent Strength(10%)
915
score-0.43→contribution-0.04
Weighted Score-0.216
Sample Size Confidence
9%(12/41 matches)
Rating935 → shrunk 994→ adjusted 877
Handicap
13

Formula: Rating = 1000 + (weighted score × 300). Each factor is normalized to −1…+1, multiplied by its weight, then summed. Window: factors are computed from the Handicap Calculation Years only (2024, 2025, 2026), excluding walkovers — the same window the official recalculation uses. Bayesian shrinkage: the raw rating is pulled toward 1000 by confidence (window matches ÷ 41, an adaptive threshold set by the last recalculation). Offsets: division and B/C/D team offsets are then applied, weighted by where each window match was played. Recency blend: the calculation years are re-weighted at up to 40% by match volume. Players with a long career but fewer than 5 window matches fall back to their full career record. Rating maps to handicap 0–15 (lower = stronger) via the league's spread multiplier.

League

4W8L12 matches·33.3% win rate
ClubSeasonsDivision(s)PWLWin %
Carr Mill B2022–2023Division 273442.9%
Carr Mill A2022Division 151420%
DateOpponentH/AScoreResultMarginCompetitionDivision
7/4/2023John HallH21-15WIN+6LeagueDivision 2
6/20/2023Walter MillerH7-21LOSS-14LeagueDivision 2
6/6/2023John AshcroftH7-21LOSS-14LeagueDivision 2
5/16/2023Stuart BrandH21-15WIN+6LeagueDivision 2
5/9/2023Mal GradyA8-21LOSS-13LeagueDivision 2
5/2/2023Chris LeighH21-5WIN+16LeagueDivision 2
8/16/2022Anthony GartsideH6-21LOSS-15LeagueDivision 1
8/10/2022Ian ManchesterA11-21LOSS-10LeagueDivision 1
8/2/2022David BarrowH12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision 2
7/20/2022Keith WilliamsA13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision 1
6/28/2022John WilsonH8-21LOSS-13LeagueDivision 1
6/14/2022Ken HillH21-8WIN+13LeagueDivision 1

Current Streak

1wins

On a hot run

Longest Win Run

1

Career best winning streak

Longest Loss Run

5

Career worst losing streak

Last 540% win rate
WLLWL
Last 1030% win rate↑ improving
WLLWLWLLLL
OpponentWLTotalWin %Last Met
John Hall101100%7/4/2023
Walter Miller0110%6/20/2023
John Ashcroft0110%6/6/2023
Stuart Brand101100%5/16/2023
Mal Grady0110%5/9/2023
Chris Leigh101100%5/2/2023
Anthony Gartside0110%8/16/2022
Ian Manchester0110%8/10/2022
David Barrow0110%8/2/2022
Keith Williams0110%7/20/2022
Biggest Win
Chris Leigh (+16)5/2/2023
Heaviest Defeat
Anthony Gartside (-15)8/16/2022
Form Arc (1st half → 2nd half)
17% → 50%improving
Avg Opponent Rating Faced
91512 known · 0 unknown
vs Strong Opponents (rating ≥ 1000)
1-325% win rate
vs Weak Opponents (rating < 1000)
3-538% win rate

By Division

Division 23-4 (43%)
Division 11-4 (20%)
Division 120%
1W·4L·5 played
Division 242.9%
3W·4L·7 played

Debut

Jun 14, 2022

Latest

Jul 4, 2023

Seasons Active

2 (1.1 yr span)

Matches / Season

6.0 (12 total)

Seasons

20222023